Sunday, November 24, 2024

Russia: A land of potholes, bad roads and deteriorating car quality!

Please read the article at: Desperate for Safer Roads, Russians Are Literally Filling Potholes with Money


According to most global rankings, Russian roads are considered to be of poor quality, placing them very low in the world ranking, often falling within the bottom half of countries when considering road infrastructure and quality; with reports frequently placing Russia around the 120th position globally. 
Key points about Russian roads:
  • Low ranking:
    Due to poor road conditions, Russia consistently ranks very low in global road quality comparisons.
  • Infrastructure issues:
    Many Russian roads suffer from potholes, uneven surfaces, and inadequate maintenance, contributing to the low ranking.
  • Regional disparities:
    While some major highways in urban areas might be better, rural roads in Russia are often significantly worse. 

 "An estimated 40 percent of rural villages are not connected to a paved road. In 1999 an estimated 43 percent of federal roads (which account for 46,000 kilometers and half of the country’s trucking volume) did not meet minimum quality standards because of broken surfaces, poor marking, and poor lighting. Road conditions are a major factor in Russia’s very high rate of traffic casualties. The road crisis is exacerbated by steady increases in vehicle volume. [Source: Library of Congress, October 2006 **]. Automobile travel is expanding, but the construction of new roads is not keeping pace. Some dreamers believe that in the not too distant future, the pot-holed roads will be replaced with a network of modern highways and goods will thus be moved overland by truck rather than railway." - Source:  Roads in Russia

"In 2023, for the first time in a decade, the number of accidents in Russia increased by 6 percent compared to the previous year. For the first time in 12 years, the number of road accident victims also rose: fatalities increased by 2.7 percent, and injuries by 5.7 percent. Over the year, 14,700 people died in traffic incidents in Russia, according to research by Esli Byt Tochnym ("If One is Being Accurate") project...

At the same time, the number of accidents involving passenger cars has also risen. Experts attribute this to sanctions and the exit of Western automakers from Russia. "The main factors driving the rise in accidents are the deteriorating quality of cars amid an aging vehicle fleet, a slow renewal rate, or the replacement of vehicles with those that do not meet safety standards," said Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Union." Source:  Russian Roads Become More Treacherous, October 4, 2024

"As good as it may sound, many economists doubt that all these efforts will produce the national makeover that Mr. Putin has proclaimed as his program for the next five years.

Vladimir Kvint, one of Russia’s leading economic strategists, says the investments are necessary to overcome Russia’s legacy of decaying Soviet-era infrastructure. But he says they are not connected with a systematic assessment of the country’s needs and are unlikely to stimulate the economic dynamism that official statements promise." - To make Russia great again, Putin is building roads and bridges, Christian Science Monitor, 2019


 


Russia compared to the waning years of Roman Empire before its fall

The decline of the Roman Empire's infrastructure was mainly caused by a lack of dedicated funding for maintenance, political turmoil (Russia recently has its Wagner Group rebellion), and the vastness of the Roman empire (Russia is a very large country and Russia is having increasing difficulty to defend Russia. See: Essay: Is Russia a failed state?) making it difficult to manage and repair infrastructure effectively, leading to aqueducts, roads, and other public works falling into disrepair, especially during the later stages of the Roman empire; as more resources were diverted towards military defense against barbarian invasions, funding for infrastructure projects dwindled significantly.

As noted above, Russia car quality now in decline, but it was never that great to begin with as can be seen below.  

"Since the end of the Cold War, the Kalashnikov has become the Russian people's greatest export. After that comes vodka, caviar, and suicidal novelists. One thing is for sure, no one was lining up to buy their cars." - Yuri OrlovLord of War movie, 2005


According to most recent data, in 2024, Switzerland ranks as the third best country in the world for road quality. In addition, the Swiss are better yodelers than the Russians. 


Friday, November 22, 2024

More bad news for the oil seller Russia: Oil markets brace for 2025 collapse as pressures mount on all sides

 


Please read: Oil markets brace for 2025 collapse as pressures mount on all sides

In addition, please see: Saudi Arabia has a big plan for oil that could hammer Russia’s war machine, economists warn, Fortune magazine, October 14, 2024

Quote from the October 22, 2024 Business Insider article 2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies:

Russia has also expressed a desire to stop relying on oil exports.

"We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told RT's Arabic service earlier this month.

He did not specify how Russia would boost its domestic economy.


Also, please read the article: OPEC’s Waning Influence and the Weak Outlook for Russian Oil, Russia Post, October 2, 2024

For more information, please see: How stable is the Russian oil industry?

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Russia is a declining power and it will only get weaker with time

 .


"Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - International relations scholar John Mearsheimer

Russian power in decline. Russia in decline: 

Russian Power in Decline , Milken Institute Review, 2022

Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective , American Enterprise Institute, 2022

Still a great power? Russia’s status dilemmas post-Ukraine war , 2023

Putin’s failing Ukraine invasion proves Russia is no superpower , 2022

Russian Grand Strategy and Ukraine: Is the war already a strategic failure?


Economic/demographic problems/forecasts of Russia




Russia's Impending Economic Implosion - Kyiv Post video, 2024


Other economic/demographic data:




Sunday, November 10, 2024

Russia's sewage system crisis

Please read the article at: Russian Statistics Service indicates that 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system

"Sewer systems in Russia have been neglected for decades. Many citizens do not even have access to working water closets, and some public infrastructure has literally collapsed due to unmaintained sewage lines. However unattractive this fact may be, it should be taken seriously as it attests to wider societal problems in Russia." - Russia’s strange acceptance of the sewage pit, New Eastern Europe website, 2019

Russia sewer system facts

  • First place: Russia has the largest population share of any developed nation with no access to indoor plumbing
  • Family values: 45% of Russian families with multiple children are not connected to centralized sewage systems
  • Fetid water: 88% of wastewater does not meet purification requirements, but gets dumped into Russian waterways nonetheless
  • Why are these numbers so high? It’s mainly due to endemic social issues: high poverty levels, the slow decay of rural villages, high tariffs placed on dwindling remote populations, and a lack of municipal rights are all contributing factors

Russia's indoor toilet crisis

"According to data put out by the Russian Statistics Service 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system, most of them in rural areas. Russian commentators are divided about how vital an achievement modern toilets are." - What do outdoor toilets tell us about Russia?, What do outdoor toilets tell us about Russia?, Euro Topics Press Review, April 3, 2019

Russian social stability is threatened by a lack of indoor toilets in rural areas? Russian commentators are divided!  See: You can't run a state without warm toilets


Question: Does Russia have a sewage system crisis? 

Judge for yourself after reading these articles:

America's sewage system is better than Russia's TERRIBLE sewage system

Russian Statistics Service indicates that 22.6 percent of Russian households aren't connected to a sewer system

They Bought Premium Housing Outside Moscow. They Still Can't Escape Russia's Decaying Infrastructure.

Skyscraper-high sewage plume erupts in Moscow

180-Foot Fountain of Feces Erupts From Sewer in Dramatic Video

Western sanctions impacting Russian underground infrastructure

Russia compared to the waning years of Roman Empire before its fall

The decline of the Roman Empire's infrastructure was mainly caused by a lack of dedicated funding for maintenance, political turmoil (Russia recently has its Wagner Group rebellion), and the vastness of the Roman empire (Russia is a very large country and Russia is having increasing difficulty to defend Russia. See: Essay: Is Russia a failed state?) making it difficult to manage and repair infrastructure effectively, leading to aqueducts, roads, and other public works falling into disrepair, especially during the later stages of the Roman empire; as more resources were diverted towards military defense against barbarian invasions, funding for infrastructure projects dwindled significantly.


Thursday, November 7, 2024

Russia's brain drain.

Recently, an excellent article on Russia's brain drain was published entitled Why Russia's brain drain is the biggest problem facing its economy

Is Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population?  Yes, it is. 

Is Russia's economy going to be lower than Indonesia's by 2026? See: Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, 2024

Please see: Russia's economy is that of a shrinking, aging, and poorly qualified population

1,000 millionaires leaving Russia in 2024 (See: Millionaire migration in 2024, Visual Capitalist website)

Monday, November 4, 2024

Russia's demographic crisis

Please read: Russia's Birth Rate Collapses to Record Low Under Putin and  Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia's demographic crisis is considered very severe, with experts predicting a significant population decline, potentially halving the country's population by the end of the century due to extremely low birth rates, high mortality rates among working-age men, and the ongoing war in Ukraine which has further accelerated the decline; this could have major economic implications due to a shrinking workforce. 
Key points about Russia's demographic crisis:
  • Low birth rate:
    Russia has one of the lowest fertility rates globally, with significantly fewer births than needed to maintain population stability. 
  • High mortality rate:
    Particularly among middle-aged men, deaths from factors like alcohol abuse, cardiovascular disease, and accidents contribute significantly to the population decline. 
  • Impact of the Ukraine war:
    The ongoing conflict has resulted in substantial casualties among Russian troops, further exacerbating the demographic crisis. 
  • Economic consequences:
    A shrinking population means fewer workers, which could negatively impact the Russian economy and hinder future growth.

  

Friday, November 1, 2024

Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?



"Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time." - International relations scholar John Mearsheimer

Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023. 

"Britannica explained that a failed state is the one that “cannot protect its national boundaries.” April 26, 2023 head of the Russian Committee of defense of the Russian State Duma suggested that Russian citizens should be mobilized to protect Russian borders acknowledging that Russia has no resources for that, comparing the current inability of the state to the previous mighty USSR." -  Russia has failed as a state , Modern Diplomacy, 2023

Questions: Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state, but it may take longer than 10 years? 

Examine the resources below and decide for yourself.

Russia will become a failed state or it is a failed state 

Russia has failed as a state , Modern Diplomacy, 2023

Could Russia Become a Failed State? , video -2023

The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire, Foreign Policy, 2023 (Re-imperialization requirements: Strong economy, strong military and effective government. Russia lacks all three.)

Could Russia disintegrate?, GIS reports, 2023 (Argues for slow decay)

Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture | Janusz Bugajski , video, 2022

Janusz Bugajski: Russia failed to develop modern state that can survive with its neighbors in peace, video, 2022

Book: Failed State: A Guide to Russia's Rupture by Janusz Bugajski, September 30, 2022

Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident, Guardian, 2024 (failed war, economic, etc.)

After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia?, Institute Montaigne, 2024

In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance, Historian Niall Ferguson on Russia, 2011 (updated 2017)

Russian power in decline and Russia in decline: 

Russian Power in Decline , Milken Institute Review, 2022

Why I am not bullish on Russia's future

Russian Power in Decline: A Demographic and Human Resource Perspective , American Enterprise Institute, 2022

Still a great power? Russia’s status dilemmas post-Ukraine war , 2023

Putin’s failing Ukraine invasion proves Russia is no superpower , 2022

Russian Grand Strategy and Ukraine: Is the war already a strategic failure?


Economic/demographic problems/forecasts of Russia




Russia's Impending Economic Implosion - Kyiv Post video, 2024


A somber outlook for the Russian economy, GIS Reports, October 2024

Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow? , War on the Rock, September, 2024

Other economic/demographic data:

Russian military weaknesses:

Russian military weaknesses  (Watch the videos)

NATO vs. Russia: Who would win?



Russian economic meltdown as light industry 'collapses' and thousands of firms go bust. Oil prices plunge. Sanctions bite

Please read:   Russian economic meltdown as light industry 'collapses' and thousands of firms go bust The Kremlin is grappling with ...

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